After our recent guide for Cookie the Cook, it was unclear how the mechanics of Stir the Pot work in Battlegrounds. After reaching out to the developer Dom “@DCalkosz” Calkosz on Twitter, we learned some interesting facts about the Discover Mechanics of Battlegrounds.
How the Discover mechanic works for Battlegrounds
To start off with the absolute basics, Discover is a mechanic within Hearthstone where you get to choose one out of several options. The most common version is the discovery of a unit after playing a tripled or golden unit onto your side of the board, of a tier above your current Tavern level.
How Discover chances are calculated in Battlegrounds
Something most players know is that cards in Battlegrounds have a limited number of minions available for each tavern tier. If one of your opponents holds a certain minion, there is less chance you can find that one, and more chance you find other options. When no more copies of a certain card are available, you cannot obtain more copies of a certain card until a player sells that minion, or they run out of health. While there are exceptions to that rule, like certain Heroes, abilities, and minion effects, don’t worry about those today.
However, unlike the common belief, the chances of each Discover are weighted by the number of available copies of each minion. That weighting mechanic was confirmed by the developer recently, which can significantly impact your choices in your Battlegrounds matches.
How the weighting for Discover changes the odds.
Let us look at how the weighting mechanic may change your outcomes in a game of Battlegrounds, using Cookie the Cook as our example, as that is what led us to learn about the mechanic. Assume we follow the ideal strategy for Cookie the Cook, and we consume three Dragon tribe units with Stir the Pot, allowing us to discover a minion up to T3 on the third round of the game.
Using the Dragons tribe, we have two T1, one T2, and three T3 options for the Discover. In a situation with no duplicate choices, and no weighting given to the assigned options, your chances of finding any T3 option of Stir the Pot would be 95%. Instead, using the total available number of minions of each tribe (which changes each game), your starting odds range from 92.8% to 93.3%. Similarly, the chance of missing (in theory) could be lower if (you or other players) in your lobby hold specific units from the tribe you are using to Discover.
Discover Math (insignificant for most)
(T1 total) 16×2 (T2 total) 15×1 (T3 total) 13×3 == 32 + 15 + 39 = 86
Meaning: Chance of Not finding a T3:
T2 first or second
First choice 47/86
Second choice 32/71
Third choice 16/55
=0.07165 x100 or 7.17%
(T1 first & second roll)
Third choice (3) 15/54
= 0.06722 x100 or 6.72% not to get a T3
While the difference may seem insignificant at first, the weighting becomes very vital in later-game decisions where you might mistakenly commit to a play with a very low chance of success. One common situation you will encounter where the weighting impacts you significantly is when discovering minions from T5 and T6, where far fewer are available of each copy. If you are later to discover your minion during a turn, you may lose a significant amount of your odds at the minions you want by playing your cards slower than your opponents.
The interesting case of Alexstrasza’s ability
While DCalkosz confirmed most discover mechanics through the weighted system, using the total available minions, one case stood out. Alexstrasza’s ability has a different weighting system, which the team plans on simplifying in a future update. The current suspicion is the system weighs your Discover options to those of the higher-tier minions, despite them having fewer copies available to avoid players constantly receiving only bad minions.